This Year’s Community Observations
Reviewer Silence: Most authors receive little to no real engagement — sometimes only an MA.
Score Disappearance: If a reviewer updates their rating/final justification, their score vanishes from the author console until decisions.
Community Frustration: Many feel the “discussion period” is a one-way street; reviewers rarely debate or clarify further.
Randomness: Even with identical scores, some papers get in, others don’t. “AC lottery” and “reviewer lottery” are real!
Field Differences: Some subfields have lower average scores; a 4.0 may be top-20% in a tough area, borderline in others.
Exhaustive Table: Score Scenarios & Acceptance Hope
Below is a table constructed from real examples in the community (Zhihu, Reddit, etc.).
Case
Initial Scores (C=Confidence)
Actions During Rebuttal
What Happened After
Community Analysis
Acceptance Hope
A
5,5,4,3
One 4 promised to increase; 3 is silent
Avg. visible 4.67 or 4.0 (if one vanishes)
4+ avg with one “up” and no strong negative
Very good chance
B
5,4,4,2
2 was highest confidence; author tried to convince; 4 promised up
Score vanishes after “up”, avg. jumps if visible
If both “up,” strong chance. If 2 stays, borderline; depends on AC
C
4,4,4,4
All 4s; only MA or silence
Avg 4.0
No reject, but no clear “champion.” Depends on AC and field bar
50–75% (“bubble”)
D
5,5,3,2 (C: 3,3,5,3)
Tried to “fix” the 2; 3 was picky
Only MA; avg 3.75/4.0
Negative champion can kill it if not convinced; AC matters
Risky but possible if AC sympathetic
E
3,3,4,5
4 promised “up”; 3 did MA
Avg jumps (3.75–4.0)
If “up” confirmed, likely to be accepted, esp. if 3 is no longer counted
Good odds if “up” happens
F
3,4,4,4,5
4 said updated; 5 silent
Avg 4.2
Most positive, one “update” is good
Likely accept if no major issues
G
3,3,3,4
Only one 4, rest 3s, some silence
Avg 3.25
Borderline or below, need at least one “up”
Unlikely unless field has very low average
H
4,4,3,3
4s MA, 3s silent
Avg 3.5–4.0
Borderline, need at least one 3 to up
True “bubble”—AC can go either way
I
5,4,3,3 (C: 2,1,4,4)
Both 3s high confidence; all silent
Avg 3.75
Weak, but not hopeless. AC might tip if rebuttal strong.
30–50%
J
5,5,5,4,3
4 says will up, 3 silent
Avg >4
Excellent if 4 moves up, still good if not
K
4,4,3,2
All silent
Avg 3.25
Very hard; needs miracle up-vote from 2 or 3
Unlikely
L
5,4,3,2; up to 5,5,3,3
After rebuttal all up by 1
Avg now 4
If real, strong, but only if up-votes stick
M
3,5,5,2
Tried hard to move 2, 5 says up
If avg now 4+, possible
Must move 2 or AC must ignore
40%
N
4,4,4,3
All MA, no comments
Avg 3.75
Bubble, depends on AC or field
O
2,3,5,5
3/2 not responding, 5/5 happy
Avg 3.75
If no “up,” borderline; depends on AC and field
30–60%
P
3,4,5,5
Some up, some down
Avg 4.25
Good if up, depends if 3/4 “negative champion”
Q
2,2,2,2
Submitted rebuttal anyway
Avg 2
“No hope” zone
R
4,3,5,5
3 not convinced, 5/5 positive
Avg 4.25
Good odds, but 3 can kill if AC is negative
S
3,3,4,4 (C: 4,4,3,3), all said “up”
All promise up, scores vanish
Should be 4/4/4/4+
Very strong, likely to be accepted
T
4,4,4,5
MA only, no real engagement
Avg 4.25
No negative champion, likely safe
U
5,4,4,2; 2 up to 3, 4 to 5
Scores vanish, avg >4
Strong, very likely accept
V
5,4,4,3; MA from 4s, 3 silent
Avg 4.0
Borderline, need at least one “up”
W
5,4,3,2; 2 still visible after MA
2 unchanged
Low chance unless AC overrules
X
3,4,4,4
3 says “thanks, still weak”
Avg 3.75
Need 3 to up, else risky
Y
3,3,3,4,4
All 3s, one 4
Avg 3.4
Very difficult
Z
5,5,4,2
2 is negative champion
Avg 4
On the line; needs AC intervention
What the Community Says
Silence ≠ Rejection: Most reviewers do not reply, especially to borderline or mid-range scores. Don’t panic!
MA Means Finalized: Once you see “Mandatory Acknowledgement,” you can’t see the score if they updated it, but they may have changed it up or down.
Upvotes = Hope: Any reviewer explicitly saying “I am raising my score” is good; if the score vanishes, assume they did.
Downvotes Happen: Occasionally, a reviewer will lower after rebuttal; this is rare but possible if the rebuttal is weak or reveals flaws.
“Negative Champion” Danger: A single reviewer (usually the lowest) with high confidence can block a paper if not convinced. Always try to address their points specifically.
Area Chairs (AC) Role
ACs often have leeway in borderline cases, especially if rebuttal is strong or all concerns are addressed except one.
If all reviewers are “neutral” (3s and 4s), and no strong negative, ACs may push for acceptance, especially if field is tough.
Community advice: if you have real engagement from at least one reviewer, and no strong rejections, odds are decent.
Finally
Here are the main takeaways from recent statistics (see screenshots):
[image: 1754406036456-screenshot-2025-08-05-at-16.59.41.jpg]
Acceptance Rate: NeurIPS acceptance rate has hovered around 25% for the last five years (see Paper Copilot NeurIPS 2025 statistics).
Score Distribution: Most “active” (not withdrawn) papers have initial means in the 3.0–4.2 range.
Community feedback is consistent with these tools: avg. 4+ is usually "safe", 3.5–4.0 is a coin toss, <3.5 is very unlikely.
Confidences help: 4s and 5s from high-confidence reviewers are
